Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Roadrunners USA @ UTSA

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

6-1  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 2:00 PM ET
UTSA Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

4-3  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
ROADRUNNERS
0%
JAGUARS --
ROADRUNNERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (UTSA)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 RoadrunnersUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

2.9%

Roadrunners Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTSA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

USA By 1-7 points

2.2%

USA By 8-14 points

0.4%

UTSA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UTSA By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
52
SOUTH ALABAMA
71
UTSA
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH ALABAMA
72
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Roadrunners Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Roadrunners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Roadrunners (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Roadrunners (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 USA @ UTSA 82 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +164.9% more
UTSA: 3.5 vs South Alabama: 1.3
Turnovers (L5) +64.7% more
UTSA: 10.7 vs South Alabama: 6.5
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
UTSA: 41.6 vs South Alabama: 35.5
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
South Alabama: 11.2 vs UTSA: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 52.0 82
UTSA Score 71.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 31.2 25.0 / 36.0
Assists 9.1 / 11.2 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.3 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 46.6 27.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 63.8 / 63.2 100.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 35.5 39.0 / 53.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.6 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 6.5 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
USA
UTSA
USA
ML
83% 24-5
47% 15-17
48% 14-15
57% 17-13
ATS
72% 21-8
53% 17-15
50% 15-15
57% 17-13
TTL
66% 19-10
66% 21-11
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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