Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Toreros @ Beach USD @ LBSU

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

3-4  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 5:00 PM ET
Walter Pyramid
View Odds Details →

LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

2-6  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
📊
BEACH
0%
TOREROS --
BEACH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Long Beach State)
TorerosUSD (-3.5) 0 BeachLBSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toreros Cover

46.0%

Beach Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)

USD By 1-7 points

24.3%

USD By 8-14 points

13.7%

LBSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

LBSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SAN DIEGO
83
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
71
SAN DIEGO
75
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beach Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beach Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beach (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Beach (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 USD @ LBSU 72 - 76
Dec 10, 2024 LBSU @ USD 76 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.6% more
Long Beach State: 32.7 vs San Diego: 28.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Long Beach State: 32.1% vs San Diego: 28.4%
Blocks (L5) +67.8% more
San Diego: 5.2 vs Long Beach State: 1.7
Steals (L5) +24.7% more
San Diego: 7.7 vs Long Beach State: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USD Score 82.0 72
LBSU Score 83.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 28.4 36.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.5 / 15.5 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.7 / 5.2 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 43.7 49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 71.6 50.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 28.7 26.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.7 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 12.7 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
LBSU Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
USD
LBSU
USD
ML
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
ATS
68% 21-10
55% 18-15
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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