CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
4-4 | Road
76
FRESNO STATE
BULLDOGSFRES
6-3 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Fresno State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FRES -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)
CSUB By 1-7 points
1.1%
CSUB By 8-14 points
0.1%
FRES By 1-7 points
5.8%
FRES By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
43
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Fresno State
65
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
69
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Fresno State
74
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 30, 2025
CSUB @ FRES
76 - 71
Nov 16, 2024
FRES @ CSUB
56 - 74
Dec 15, 2023
CSUB @ FRES
58 - 61
Dec 20, 2022
FRES @ CSUB
56 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+34.6% more
Fresno State: 15.8
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.4%
Fresno State: 34.3%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 23.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Fresno State: 49.5%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 41.5%
Blocks (L5)
+38.7% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 4.2
vs
Fresno State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
43.0
76
FRES Score
65.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 23.9
24.0 / 7.0
Assists
15.8 / 11.7
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.2
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 41.5
37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
63.7 / 68.5
79.0 / 96.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 37.8
43.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.7
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 17.9
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
FRES
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
FRES
Advantage
21-10-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
CSUB
FRES
CSUB
ML
59%
19-13
55%
17-14
74%
23-8
71%
22-9
ATS
75%
24-8
61%
19-12
74%
23-8
71%
22-9
TTL
56%
18-14
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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