Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Mavericks SFA @ UTA

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

5-2  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

6-2  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UT Arlington)
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

13.6%

Mavericks Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

SFA By 1-7 points

9.3%

SFA By 8-14 points

2.7%

UTA By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTA By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
76
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
87
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
70
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
73
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SFA @ UTA 61 - 66
Mar 14, 2024 SFA @ UTA 78 - 109
Feb 10, 2024 SFA @ UTA 63 - 71
Jan 6, 2024 UTA @ SFA 73 - 92
Feb 18, 2023 UTA @ SFA 75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
UT Arlington: 14.9 vs Stephen F. Austin: 10.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
UT Arlington: 49.0% vs Stephen F. Austin: 42.9%
Blocks (L5) +14.1% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.1 vs UT Arlington: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Stephen F. Austin: 72.4% vs UT Arlington: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 76.0 61
UTA Score 87.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 35.6 36.0 / 23.0
Assists 14.6 / 15.2 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.1 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 42.9 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 72.4 80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 35.4 34.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.4 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 10.4 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
UTA
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
SFA
UTA
SFA
ML
50% 16-16
59% 17-12
62% 20-12
79% 23-6
ATS
59% 19-13
59% 17-12
62% 20-12
79% 23-6
TTL
53% 17-15
62% 18-11
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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