Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Midshipmen SELA @ NAVY

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

3-5  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

4-5  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
LIONS --
MIDSHIPMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Navy)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 MidshipmenNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

0.0%

Midshipmen Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAVY -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

SELA By 1-7 points

0.0%

SELA By 8-14 points

0.0%

NAVY By 1-7 points

0.2%

NAVY By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
56
SE LOUISIANA
92
NAVY
Simulated Score
68
SE LOUISIANA
72
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Midshipmen Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Midshipmen Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Midshipmen (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Midshipmen (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SELA @ NAVY 69 - 65
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.2%
Navy: 33.7% vs SE Louisiana: 20.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Navy: 83.2% vs SE Louisiana: 70.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Navy: 42.8% vs SE Louisiana: 40.2%
Steals (L5) +38.3% more
SE Louisiana: 10.4 vs Navy: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 56.0 69
NAVY Score 92.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 20.5 29.0 / 60.0
Assists 13.8 / 13.2 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 40.2 43.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 70.7 68.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 33.8 26.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.4 / 10.4 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 12.0 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
SELA
NAVY
SELA
ML
79% 26-7
70% 21-9
55% 18-15
66% 19-10
ATS
73% 24-9
60% 18-12
55% 18-15
67% 20-10
TTL
73% 24-9
70% 21-9
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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