Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Black Bears @ Lancers ME @ LONG

MAINE

BLACK BEARSME

0-6  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

3-3  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
BLACK BEARS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Longwood)
Black BearsME (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Black Bears Cover

0.8%

Lancers Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LONG -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)

ME By 1-7 points

0.6%

ME By 8-14 points

0.1%

LONG By 1-7 points

4.0%

LONG By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MAINE
86
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
65
MAINE
72
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ME @ LONG 61 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.2% more
Longwood: 8.3 vs Maine: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5) +18.9%
Longwood: 77.9% vs Maine: 59.0%
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Longwood: 12.3 vs Maine: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +13.6% more
Longwood: 34.8 vs Maine: 30.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ME Score 62.0 61
LONG Score 86.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 28.7 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.3 / 10.5 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.4 / 4.1 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 45.4 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 59.0 62.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 30.7 36.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.3 / 6.2 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 15.8 19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -2.8
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
ME
LONG
ME
ML
65% 20-11
45% 14-17
68% 21-10
52% 16-15
ATS
68% 21-10
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
52% 16-15
TTL
65% 20-11
55% 17-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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