Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Demons SOU @ NWST

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

3-4  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Prather Coliseum
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN STATE

DEMONSNWST

1-6  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
DEMONS
0%
JAGUARS --
DEMONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Northwestern State)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 DemonsNWST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

46.0%

Demons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NWST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)

SOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SOU By 8-14 points

13.7%

NWST By 1-7 points

26.2%

NWST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
55
SOUTHERN
56
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN
72
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Demons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Demons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Demons (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Demons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SOU @ NWST 75 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.3% more
Southern: 12.2 vs Northwestern State: 5.8
Rebounding (L5) +32.1% more
Southern: 38.5 vs Northwestern State: 26.2
Assists (L5) +24.1% more
Southern: 16.9 vs Northwestern State: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Southern: 14.3 vs Northwestern State: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 55.0 75
NWST Score 56.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.6 48.0 / 53.0
Assists 12.8 / 16.9 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.7 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 46.4 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 72.9 67.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 26.2 / 38.5 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.8 / 12.2 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 14.3 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
NWST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
NWST Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
SOU
NWST
SOU
ML
68% 21-10
67% 22-11
77% 23-7
70% 21-9
ATS
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
77% 23-7
70% 21-9
TTL
39% 12-19
42% 14-19
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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