SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
2-5 | Road
70
STETSON
HATTERSSTET
3-4 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
HATTERS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS
--
HATTERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-71.0
STETSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +71.0 points (Stetson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STET -71.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STET)
SUU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SUU By 8-14 points
0.0%
STET By 1-7 points
0.0%
STET By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Utah
36
SOUTHERN UTAH
Stetson
107
STETSON
Simulated Score
Southern Utah
71
SOUTHERN UTAH
Stetson
76
STETSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hatters
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hatters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hatters (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -71.0
D
Sim
Hatters (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
SUU @ STET
70 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.1% more
Stetson: 14.6
vs
Southern Utah: 12.2
Steals (L5)
+13.3% more
Stetson: 5.7
vs
Southern Utah: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Stetson: 35.7%
vs
Southern Utah: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Stetson: 45.5%
vs
Southern Utah: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SUU Score
36.0
70
STET Score
107.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 30.6
29.0 / 19.0
Assists
14.6 / 12.2
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.4
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 43.8
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
63.7 / 71.1
80.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 35.5
32.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.7 / 5.1
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.6
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
STET
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
STET
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STET
SUU
STET
SUU
ML
55%
18-15
61%
19-12
73%
24-9
68%
21-10
ATS
64%
21-12
71%
22-9
73%
24-9
69%
22-10
TTL
61%
20-13
52%
16-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
