MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
2-4 | Road
58
HOFSTRA
PRIDEHOF
2-3 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
PRIDE
0%
WARRIORS
--
PRIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
HOFSTRA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Hofstra)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOF -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOF)
MRMK By 1-7 points
0.0%
MRMK By 8-14 points
0.0%
HOF By 1-7 points
0.4%
HOF By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Merrimack
55
MERRIMACK
Hofstra
89
HOFSTRA
Simulated Score
Merrimack
68
MERRIMACK
Hofstra
75
HOFSTRA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pride
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pride
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pride (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Pride (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
MRMK @ HOF
58 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+27.5% more
Hofstra: 11.8
vs
Merrimack: 9.3
Assists (L5)
+24.0% more
Hofstra: 13.9
vs
Merrimack: 11.2
Rebounding (L5)
+21.7% more
Hofstra: 35.5
vs
Merrimack: 29.1
Blocks (L5)
+13.4% more
Hofstra: 3.3
vs
Merrimack: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score
55.0
58
HOF Score
89.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 23.5
43.0 / 30.0
Assists
13.9 / 11.2
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.9
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 37.9
46.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 75.9
85.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 29.1
43.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.4
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 9.3
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
HOF
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.7
ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
HOF
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 8.7
ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
HOF
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOF
MRMK
HOF
MRMK
ML
77%
27-8
47%
16-18
71%
25-10
65%
22-12
ATS
83%
29-6
53%
18-16
71%
25-10
65%
22-12
TTL
51%
18-17
62%
21-13
100%
35-0
100%
34-0
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