Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Leopards BALL @ LAF

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

2-5  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 4:30 PM ET
Kirby Sports Center
View Odds Details →

LAFAYETTE

LEOPARDSLAF

2-6  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
LEOPARDS
100%
CARDINALS --
LEOPARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LAFAYETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 LeopardsLAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

46.0%

Leopards Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAF)

BALL By 1-7 points

26.2%

BALL By 8-14 points

16.9%

LAF By 1-7 points

24.3%

LAF By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
82
BALL STATE
81
LAFAYETTE
Simulated Score
68
BALL STATE
75
LAFAYETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leopards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leopards (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Leopards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 BALL @ LAF 37 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
Ball State: 3.8 vs Lafayette: 2.3
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Ball State: 41.9% vs Lafayette: 38.3%
Turnovers (L5) +8.1% more
Lafayette: 13.2 vs Ball State: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Lafayette: 35.6% vs Ball State: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 82.0 37
LAF Score 81.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 31.2 14.0 / 10.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.5 4.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.8 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 38.3 / 41.9 33.0 / 22.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 69.0 85.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 30.1 46.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.7 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 12.2 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAF
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAF
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAF
BALL
LAF
BALL
ML
53% 17-15
43% 13-17
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
ATS
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
TTL
50% 16-16
50% 15-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 2 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 5 minutes ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 7 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 48 minutes ago