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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

13-5  |  Road

130
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 9:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

12-8  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
NUGGETS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

100.0%

Suns Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

0.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.0%

PHX By 1-7 points

0.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DENVER
75
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
114
DENVER
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Loss
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.3% more
Denver: 28.6 vs Phoenix: 21.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Denver: 42.0% vs Phoenix: 35.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Denver: 51.5% vs Phoenix: 45.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Denver: 80.1% vs Phoenix: 76.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 125.0 130
PHX Score 75.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 42.0 33.0 / 58.0
Assists 21.3 / 28.6 23.0 / 36.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 51.5 44.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 80.1 77.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 46.3 / 43.2 32.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.3 / 5.2 11.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 15.0 7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DEN
PHX
DEN
ML
57% 60-45
54% 57-48
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
ATS
58% 59-43-3
63% 65-38-2
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
TTL
59% 61-42-2
54% 56-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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