TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
14-5 | Road
111
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
5-14 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
HORNETS
0%
RAPTORS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
TOR By 1-7 points
15.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
5.8%
CHA By 1-7 points
26.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
100
TORONTO
Charlotte
107
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+8)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
TOR @ CHA
97 - 96
Dec 5, 2025
CHA @ TOR
111 - 86
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ CHA
111 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
CHA @ TOR
108 - 110
Apr 9, 2025
CHA @ TOR
96 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.8% more
Charlotte: 5.4
vs
Toronto: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+9.8% more
Charlotte: 14.8
vs
Toronto: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Charlotte: 82.8%
vs
Toronto: 78.1%
Steals (L5)
+41.0% more
Toronto: 9.7
vs
Charlotte: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
100.0
111
CHA Score
107.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 31.9
26.0 / 31.0
Assists
23.8 / 26.1
24.0 / 34.0
Blocks
5.4 / 3.4
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 46.8
44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
82.8 / 78.1
90.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.2 / 44.6
39.0 / 52.0
Steals
5.7 / 9.7
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.5
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
TOR
CHA
TOR
ML
61%
60-39
55%
57-47
48%
40-44
55%
48-39
ATS
60%
59-40
61%
62-40-2
48%
40-44
55%
48-39
TTL
58%
57-42
60%
62-42
100%
84-0
100%
87-0
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