DETROIT
PISTONSDET
15-4 | Road
138
MIAMI
HEATMIA
13-6 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
HEAT
0%
PISTONS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DET By 1-7 points
1.4%
DET By 8-14 points
0.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
6.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
111
DETROIT
Miami
132
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Detroit
106
DETROIT
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o240.0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DET @ MIA
110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026
MIA @ DET
118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025
DET @ MIA
138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025
DET @ MIA
116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024
MIA @ DET
124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
Miami: 29.6
vs
Detroit: 24.0
Steals (L5)
+10.1% more
Miami: 8.6
vs
Detroit: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Miami: 79.0%
vs
Detroit: 76.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+24.6% more
Detroit: 17.8
vs
Miami: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
111.0
138
MIA Score
132.0
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 37.1
48.0 / 42.0
Assists
29.6 / 24.0
27.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.8 / 6.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 47.4
50.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 76.5
85.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
50.4 / 47.1
38.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.6 / 7.8
12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 17.8
18.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48%
46-50
55%
64-53
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
60-54-3
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
70-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
96-0
Contextual Game News
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…
Jalen Duren Returns to Pistons Camp, Impressing with Speed and E…
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
Providence Basketball Awaits NCAA Eligibility Verdicts for Dink …