Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Warriors NO @ GS

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-16  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

10-10  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
PELICANS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

NO By 1-7 points

24.3%

NO By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
125
NEW ORLEANS
126
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
114
NEW ORLEANS
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.0 Loss
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 GS @ NO 109 - 113
Nov 29, 2025 NO @ GS 96 - 104
Nov 16, 2025 GS @ NO 124 - 106
Mar 28, 2025 GS @ NO 111 - 95
Nov 22, 2024 GS @ NO 112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.7% more
New Orleans: 6.2 vs Golden State: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
New Orleans: 47.9% vs Golden State: 45.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
New Orleans: 35.4% vs Golden State: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 125.0 96
GS Score 126.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 35.4 26.0 / 23.0
Assists 27.8 / 27.7 28.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.7 / 6.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 47.9 41.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 80.6 80.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 45.5 / 44.8 47.0 / 50.0
Steals 10.2 / 10.5 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 15.3 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
NO
GS
NO
ML
55% 95-79
62% 98-61
58% 49-35
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 101-73
68% 107-51-1
58% 49-35
58% 48-35
TTL
77% 134-40
75% 119-40
100% 84-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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