Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Rangers TB @ NYR

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

15-7-2  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

13-11-2  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Steven Santini
GOALTENDER

Steven Santini

#64 | D
@
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Steven Santini None-None -- -- --
Igor Shesterkin None-None 3.13 0.912 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.13
-- Save % 0.912
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
LIGHTNING --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 RangersNYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

15.9%

Rangers Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)

TB By 1 goal

6.6%

TB By 2-3 goals

3.7%

NYR By 1 goal

17.5%

NYR By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TAMPA BAY
3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 TB @ NYR 1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 NYR @ TB 4 - 2
Nov 29, 2025 TB @ NYR 4 - 1
Nov 12, 2025 NYR @ TB 7 - 3
Apr 17, 2025 TB @ NYR 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +89.4% more
New York: 31.7 vs Tampa Bay: 16.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +50.5% more
New York: 16.7 vs Tampa Bay: 11.1
Faceoff % (L5) +3.9%
New York: 54.7% vs Tampa Bay: 50.8%
Takeaways (L5) +27.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.8 vs New York: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 1.0 4
NYR Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.7 / 11.1 15.0 / 20.0
Faceoff % 54.7 / 50.8 64.6 / 35.4
Hits 31.7 / 16.7 24.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 3227.0 / 4034.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.8 / 24.3 13.0 / 35.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 4.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
TB
NYR
TB
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
ATS
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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