BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
9-11-4 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
14-7-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 1.85 | 0.917 | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 1.85 | 0.939 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.85
GAA
1.85
0.917
Save %
Ldr 0.939
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
WILD
0%
SABRES
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MIN By 1 goal
19.7%
MIN By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wild
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wild (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 6, 2026
MIN @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 17, 2026
MIN @ BUF
5 - 4
Nov 29, 2025
BUF @ MIN
3 - 2
Mar 22, 2025
BUF @ MIN
1 - 4
Nov 27, 2024
MIN @ BUF
1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+11.6% more
Minnesota: 24.4
vs
Buffalo: 21.9
Takeaways (L5)
+28.9% more
Buffalo: 6.2
vs
Minnesota: 4.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.2% more
Buffalo: 32.4
vs
Minnesota: 29.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
3
MIN Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.3 / 14.6
14.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
44.0 / 44.8
55.2 / 44.8
Hits
24.4 / 21.9
18.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
994.0 / 1140.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 32.4
24.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 6.2
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BUF
MIN
BUF
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
TTL
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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