Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Buccaneers CARK @ ETSU

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

3-5  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 4:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

6-1  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
BEARS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

2.3%

Buccaneers Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

CARK By 1-7 points

1.7%

CARK By 8-14 points

0.3%

ETSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

ETSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
65
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
85
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
68
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
77
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 CARK @ ETSU 57 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.5% more
East Tennessee State: 3.4 vs Central Arkansas: 2.2
Steals (L5) +24.0% more
East Tennessee State: 10.0 vs Central Arkansas: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
East Tennessee State: 72.4% vs Central Arkansas: 63.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
East Tennessee State: 50.9% vs Central Arkansas: 47.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 65.0 57
ETSU Score 85.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 36.5 39.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.5 / 15.6 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.2 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 47.6 52.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 63.6 50.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 36.3 37.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.0 / 8.1 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 12.8 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
CARK
ETSU
CARK
ML
42% 14-19
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
70% 23-10
ATS
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
70% 23-10
70% 23-10
TTL
45% 15-18
50% 16-16-1
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Baylor Position-by-Position Preview: Can the Bears Avenge Auburn…
si 1 month ago
Jayhawks Coach on NFL-to-College Pipeline: 'Nothing Surprises Me…
kansascity 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Tommy John, Legendary Pitcher and Namesake of Revolutionary Elbo…
westhawaiitoday 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Baylor's Caden Powell Granted Extra Year of Eligibility, Boostin…
si 2 months ago
Missouri State Coach Proposes Radical Plan: Free Academic Credit…
brobible 2 months ago