Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Retrievers DSU @ UMBC

DELAWARE STATE

HORNETSDSU

2-6  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
View Odds Details →

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

4-2  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
📊
RETRIEVERS
100%
HORNETS --
RETRIEVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DELAWARE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Delaware State)
HornetsDSU (-3.5) 0 RetrieversUMBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

98.2%

Retrievers Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DSU)

DSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

DSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

UMBC By 1-7 points

1.4%

UMBC By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
88
DELAWARE STATE
67
UMBC
Simulated Score
69
DELAWARE STATE
76
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Retrievers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Retrievers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 DSU @ UMBC 57 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
Delaware State: 9.3 vs UMBC: 7.0
Blocks (L5) +235.5% more
UMBC: 4.1 vs Delaware State: 1.2
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
UMBC: 14.1 vs Delaware State: 12.1
Rebounding (L5) +15.9% more
UMBC: 40.7 vs Delaware State: 35.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DSU Score 88.0 57
UMBC Score 67.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 24.7 39.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.1 / 12.1 14.0 / 3.0
Blocks 4.1 / 1.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 36.7 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 67.4 67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 35.1 39.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.3 2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 12.4 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DSU
8-23-0 (25.8%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DSU
9-17-0 (34.6%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DSU
7-19-0
O: 26.9% / U: 73.1% Total +/-: -5.3
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
DSU
UMBC
DSU
ML
58% 18-13
60% 18-12
55% 17-14
75% 18-6
ATS
68% 21-10
60% 18-12
55% 17-14
72% 18-7
TTL
39% 12-19
57% 17-13
100% 31-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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