Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Mountaineers HOW @ MSM

HOWARD

BISONHOW

4-5  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 4:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

2-6  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
BISON --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
HOWARD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Howard)
BisonHOW (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

88.5%

Mountaineers Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOW -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOW)

HOW By 1-7 points

20.1%

HOW By 8-14 points

27.2%

MSM By 1-7 points

8.0%

MSM By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
94
HOWARD
82
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
HOWARD
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 HOW @ MSM 75 - 79
Nov 30, 2024 MSM @ HOW 79 - 75
Nov 25, 2023 HOW @ MSM 87 - 83
Dec 21, 2022 MSM @ HOW 62 - 63
Nov 30, 2021 HOW @ MSM 70 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +73.5% more
Howard: 10.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.8
Blocks (L5) +19.8% more
Howard: 3.1 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Howard: 36.3 vs Mount St. Mary's: 30.7
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
Howard: 16.6 vs Mount St. Mary's: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOW Score 94.0 75
MSM Score 82.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 34.0 44.0 / 28.0
Assists 14.8 / 16.6 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.1 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 47.2 52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 62.2 / 69.7 81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 36.3 42.0 / 33.0
Steals 2.8 / 10.7 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 12.7 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOW Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOW Advantage
22-8-1 (73.3%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
MSM
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: 0.0
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
HOW
MSM
HOW
ML
53% 17-15
59% 20-14
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
ATS
62% 20-12
59% 20-14
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
TTL
81% 26-6
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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