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LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

2-4  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Banterra Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

3-4  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
SALUKIS
100%
TROJANS --
SALUKIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Little Rock)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 SalukisSIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

96.4%

Salukis Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LR By 1-7 points

10.7%

LR By 8-14 points

21.6%

SIU By 1-7 points

2.7%

SIU By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
81
LITTLE ROCK
63
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
LITTLE ROCK
72
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Salukis Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Salukis (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 LR @ SIU 65 - 74
Nov 7, 2022 LR @ SIU 63 - 94
Nov 9, 2021 SIU @ LR 66 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.5% more
Little Rock: 16.4 vs Southern Illinois: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +18.3%
Little Rock: 37.6% vs Southern Illinois: 19.3%
Steals (L5) +8.9% more
Little Rock: 8.3 vs Southern Illinois: 7.6
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Southern Illinois: 38.7 vs Little Rock: 32.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 81.0 65
SIU Score 63.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 19.3 / 37.6 38.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.6 / 11.9 14.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.9 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 43.0 60.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 63.9 60.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 32.1 28.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.3 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 16.4 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
SIU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
SIU Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
LR
SIU
LR
ML
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
47% 15-17
68% 17-8
ATS
56% 18-14
45% 14-17
47% 15-17
68% 17-8
TTL
53% 17-15
58% 18-13
100% 32-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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