Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Beacons WMU @ VAL

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

3-4  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

4-2  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
BEACONS
100%
BRONCOS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Western Michigan)
BroncosWMU (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

69.1%

Beacons Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

WMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

WMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

VAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

VAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
WESTERN MICHIGAN
61
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
71
WESTERN MICHIGAN
74
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beacons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Beacons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 WMU @ VAL 55 - 84
Dec 20, 2024 VAL @ WMU 76 - 73
Nov 13, 2022 WMU @ VAL 65 - 81
Dec 5, 2021 VAL @ WMU 71 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
Western Michigan: 12.3 vs Valparaiso: 8.9
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Western Michigan: 13.1 vs Valparaiso: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +11.0%
Western Michigan: 78.5% vs Valparaiso: 67.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Western Michigan: 44.5% vs Valparaiso: 38.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 66.0 55
VAL Score 61.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.0 / 30.9 46.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.7 / 13.1 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 6.7 / 1.8 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 38.5 / 44.5 45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 78.5 88.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 36.7 37.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.6 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 12.3 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
WMU
VAL
WMU
ML
48% 16-17
60% 18-12
61% 20-13
70% 21-9
ATS
52% 17-16
67% 20-10
61% 20-13
70% 21-9
TTL
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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