MERCER
BEARSMER
4-2 | Road
91
ELON
PHOENIXELON
4-2 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
PHOENIX
0%
BEARS
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Elon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ELON -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)
MER By 1-7 points
21.6%
MER By 8-14 points
10.7%
ELON By 1-7 points
27.2%
ELON By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
73
MERCER
Elon
76
ELON
Simulated Score
Mercer
68
MERCER
Elon
72
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phoenix
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Phoenix (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
MER @ ELON
91 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.8% more
Elon: 3.7
vs
Mercer: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Elon: 15.6
vs
Mercer: 14.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Elon: 49.9%
vs
Mercer: 45.7%
Steals (L5)
+17.5% more
Mercer: 7.7
vs
Elon: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
73.0
91
ELON Score
76.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 38.8
35.0 / 40.0
Assists
15.6 / 14.2
16.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 45.7
42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 75.4
73.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 38.2
48.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.7
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 11.7
18.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
ELON
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
MER
ELON
MER
ML
61%
19-12
55%
17-14
71%
22-9
71%
22-9
ATS
55%
17-14
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
71%
22-9
TTL
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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