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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

3-5  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 4:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

7-0  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
BOBCATS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Utah State)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

1.8%

Aggies Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

MTST By 1-7 points

1.4%

MTST By 8-14 points

0.2%

USU By 1-7 points

6.8%

USU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MONTANA STATE
83
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
71
MONTANA STATE
76
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 MTST @ USU 81 - 84
Nov 5, 2019 MTST @ USU 73 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +66.1% more
Utah State: 11.7 vs Montana State: 7.1
Assists (L5) +50.7% more
Utah State: 19.2 vs Montana State: 12.7
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
Utah State: 12.6 vs Montana State: 10.0
Rebounding (L5) +13.0% more
Utah State: 35.7 vs Montana State: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 62.0 81
USU Score 83.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 37.3 36.0 / 31.0
Assists 19.2 / 12.7 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 54.3 / 49.7 47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 70.8 69.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 31.6 37.0 / 43.0
Steals 11.7 / 7.1 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 10.0 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
MTST
USU
MTST
ML
49% 17-18
52% 16-15
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
ATS
74% 26-9
52% 16-15
67% 22-11
67% 20-10
TTL
51% 18-17
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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