Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Nittany Lions SHU @ PSU

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

2-5  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 6:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

7-1  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
PIONEERS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Penn State)
PioneersSHU (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

38.2%

Nittany Lions Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

SHU By 1-7 points

21.6%

SHU By 8-14 points

10.7%

PSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

PSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
60
SACRED HEART
63
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
60
SACRED HEART
82
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 SHU @ PSU 59 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Penn State: 50.2% vs Sacred Heart: 44.4%
Turnovers (L5) +42.4% more
Sacred Heart: 12.2 vs Penn State: 7.0
Steals (L5) +30.6% more
Sacred Heart: 8.2 vs Penn State: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +24.1% more
Sacred Heart: 1.5 vs Penn State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHU Score 60.0 59
PSU Score 63.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 37.7 44.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.4 / 14.9 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.1 / 1.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 44.4 54.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 79.9 66.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 33.0 39.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.2 15.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 7.0 / 12.2 17.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
SHU
PSU
SHU
ML
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
ATS
72% 23-9
76% 25-8
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
TTL
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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