Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Patriots JMU @ GMU

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

5-4  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

8-0  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
DUKES --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (James Madison)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

75.8%

Patriots Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

25.3%

GMU By 1-7 points

15.3%

GMU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
79
JAMES MADISON
72
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
69
JAMES MADISON
73
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dukes (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 JMU @ GMU 66 - 82
Nov 29, 2024 GMU @ JMU 66 - 61
Nov 19, 2021 GMU @ JMU 64 - 67
Nov 16, 2019 JMU @ GMU 70 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.8% more
James Madison: 4.3 vs George Mason: 2.8
Assists (L5) +24.4% more
James Madison: 17.9 vs George Mason: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
James Madison: 77.3% vs George Mason: 71.8%
Steals (L5) +19.4% more
George Mason: 6.6 vs James Madison: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 79.0 66
GMU Score 72.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 46.9 / 43.6 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.5 / 17.9 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 47.9 55.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 77.3 78.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 36.3 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.6 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.0 10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
JMU
GMU
JMU
ML
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
ATS
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
TTL
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Keyshawn Hall Wins Temporary Restraining Order, Cleared to Suit …
saturdaydownsouth 6 days, 7 hours ago
Bob Chesney Era at UCLA Begins with Defensive Force Sahir West S…
si 2 months, 1 week ago
Outpouring of support following death of Jordan Devey — Utah nat…
deseret 2 months, 1 week ago
'It’s a gift and a privilege': Milford's Hill now a Patriots che…
yahoo 2 months, 4 weeks ago
This is a really likable Kentucky Basketball team
yahoo 3 months, 1 week ago