Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Runnin' Bulldogs SELA @ GWEB

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

1-5  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 12:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

GARDNER-WEBB

RUNNIN' BULLDOGSGWEB

0-7  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS
0%
LIONS --
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Gardner-Webb)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 Runnin' BulldogsGWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

27.4%

Runnin' Bulldogs Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GWEB -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GWEB)

SELA By 1-7 points

16.9%

SELA By 8-14 points

6.8%

GWEB By 1-7 points

26.8%

GWEB By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
80
SE LOUISIANA
86
GARDNER-WEBB
Simulated Score
69
SE LOUISIANA
73
GARDNER-WEBB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Runnin' Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Runnin' Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 SELA @ GWEB 76 - 68
Nov 26, 2024 SELA @ GWEB 69 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.7% more
Gardner-Webb: 3.0 vs SE Louisiana: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.7% more
Gardner-Webb: 15.5 vs SE Louisiana: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Gardner-Webb: 28.1% vs SE Louisiana: 21.7%
Steals (L5) +27.2% more
SE Louisiana: 8.6 vs Gardner-Webb: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 80.0 76
GWEB Score 86.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 21.7 42.0 / 18.0
Assists 10.6 / 12.8 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.3 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 39.8 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 67.0 72.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 29.5 / 33.7 31.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.6 4.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 12.6 21.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA Advantage
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
GWEB
4-29-0 (12.1%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
GWEB Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
GWEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GWEB
SELA
GWEB
SELA
ML
73% 22-8
70% 21-9
63% 19-11
66% 19-10
ATS
73% 22-8
60% 18-12
63% 19-11
67% 20-10
TTL
53% 16-14
70% 21-9
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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