Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Great Danes COLG @ UALB

COLGATE

RAIDERSCOLG

3-4  |  Road

69
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Place Bell
View Odds Details →

UALBANY

GREAT DANESUALB

2-5  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
GREAT DANES
100%
RAIDERS --
GREAT DANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
COLGATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Colgate)
RaidersCOLG (-3.5) 0 Great DanesUALB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

88.5%

Great Danes Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COLG -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLG)

COLG By 1-7 points

20.1%

COLG By 8-14 points

27.2%

UALB By 1-7 points

8.0%

UALB By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
COLGATE
64
UALBANY
Simulated Score
75
COLGATE
70
UALBANY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Raiders (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 COLG @ UALB 69 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +16.5%
Colgate: 79.2% vs UAlbany: 62.7%
Turnovers (L5) +18.9% more
UAlbany: 13.0 vs Colgate: 10.9
Assists (L5) +18.0% more
UAlbany: 15.4 vs Colgate: 13.1
Steals (L5) +16.8% more
UAlbany: 9.1 vs Colgate: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 76.0 69
UALB Score 64.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 30.8 40.0 / 37.0
Assists 15.4 / 13.1 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 49.4 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 62.7 / 79.2 33.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 33.5 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.8 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 10.9 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
UALB
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
UALB
11-18-0 (37.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.9
UALB
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UALB
COLG
UALB
COLG
ML
55% 17-14
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
ATS
77% 24-7
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
70% 23-10
TTL
61% 19-12
78% 25-7
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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