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NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

4-4  |  Road

57
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

6-1  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
📊
SEAHAWKS
100%
MIDSHIPMEN --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Navy)
MidshipmenNAVY (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Midshipmen Cover

99.9%

Seahawks Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAVY -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

NAVY By 1-7 points

1.1%

NAVY By 8-14 points

4.8%

UNCW By 1-7 points

0.1%

UNCW By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
97
NAVY
67
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
68
NAVY
72
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Midshipmen Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Midshipmen (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 NAVY @ UNCW 57 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.2% more
Navy: 3.6 vs UNC Wilmington: 2.2
Steals (L5) +34.5% more
Navy: 6.6 vs UNC Wilmington: 4.3
Assists (L5) +11.6% more
Navy: 16.2 vs UNC Wilmington: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Navy: 79.3% vs UNC Wilmington: 71.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 97.0 57
UNCW Score 67.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 40.5 48.0 / 20.0
Assists 14.3 / 16.2 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.6 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.7 55.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 79.3 76.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 38.3 46.0 / 26.0
Steals 4.3 / 6.6 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.7 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
UNCW
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
NAVY
UNCW
NAVY
ML
64% 21-12
79% 26-7
52% 17-16
55% 18-15
ATS
58% 19-14
73% 24-9
52% 17-16
55% 18-15
TTL
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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