Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Black Bears @ Eagles ME @ AMER

MAINE

BLACK BEARSME

0-7  |  Road

61
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

4-3  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BLACK BEARS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (American University)
Black BearsME (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Black Bears Cover

6.7%

Eagles Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AMER -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMER)

ME By 1-7 points

4.8%

ME By 8-14 points

1.1%

AMER By 1-7 points

15.3%

AMER By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
MAINE
81
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
68
MAINE
72
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o132.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 ME @ AMER 61 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +62.5% more
American University: 19.2 vs Maine: 11.8
Rebounding (L5) +31.5% more
American University: 39.4 vs Maine: 30.0
Steals (L5) +23.5% more
American University: 9.6 vs Maine: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.7%
American University: 38.3% vs Maine: 27.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ME Score 66.0 61
AMER Score 81.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 27.6 38.0 / 31.0
Assists 19.2 / 11.8 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.1 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 43.1 45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 62.4 67.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 30.0 28.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.6 / 7.8 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 14.6 8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
AMER Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -2.8
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
ME
AMER
ME
ML
62% 20-12
45% 14-17
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
ATS
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
TTL
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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