Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Quakers MRMK @ PENN

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

2-4  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 4:30 PM ET
The Palestra
View Odds Details →

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

3-2  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
QUAKERS
0%
WARRIORS --
QUAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Pennsylvania)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 QuakersPENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

0.0%

Quakers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PENN -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)

MRMK By 1-7 points

0.0%

MRMK By 8-14 points

0.0%

PENN By 1-7 points

0.0%

PENN By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
54
MERRIMACK
95
PENNSYLVANIA
Simulated Score
66
MERRIMACK
70
PENNSYLVANIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Quakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Quakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Quakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Quakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 MRMK @ PENN 65 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +39.6% more
Pennsylvania: 38.7 vs Merrimack: 27.7
Assists (L5) +30.8% more
Pennsylvania: 14.2 vs Merrimack: 10.8
Blocks (L5) +11.3% more
Pennsylvania: 2.7 vs Merrimack: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.9%
Pennsylvania: 39.1% vs Merrimack: 28.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 54.0 65
PENN Score 95.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 28.2 25.0 / 14.0
Assists 14.2 / 10.8 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.4 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 38.3 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 77.3 52.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 27.7 46.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.6 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.4 11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
PENN
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
PENN
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
PENN
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PENN
MRMK
PENN
MRMK
ML
53% 16-14
47% 16-18
76% 22-7
65% 22-12
ATS
63% 19-11
53% 18-16
76% 22-7
65% 22-12
TTL
70% 21-9
62% 21-13
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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