TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
14-7-2 | Road
6
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
13-10-1 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 3.00 | 0.919 | -- |
| John Gibson | None-None | 5.05 | 0.808 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
5.05
0.919 Ldr
Save %
0.808
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
RED WINGS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DET By 1 goal
19.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 13, 2026
DET @ TB
3 - 4
Mar 12, 2026
DET @ TB
1 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
TB @ DET
6 - 3
Oct 17, 2025
TB @ DET
1 - 2
Apr 11, 2025
DET @ TB
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+40.6% more
Detroit: 32.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 23.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.6% more
Detroit: 17.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 14.6
Power Play % (L5)
+19.5%
Detroit: 30.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.7%
Detroit: 54.6%
vs
Tampa Bay: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
2.0
6
DET Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 14.6
16.0 / 4.0
Faceoff %
54.6 / 49.9
47.4 / 52.6
Hits
17.4 / 17.6
20.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
30.1 / 10.5
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
32.3 / 23.0
37.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 5.2
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
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