MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
12-7-3 | Road
4
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
10-5-8 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Shea Theodore
#27 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 1.01 | 0.968 | -- |
| Shea Theodore | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.01
GAA
--
0.968
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
CANADIENS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
VGK @ MTL
2 - 3
Nov 28, 2025
MTL @ VGK
4 - 1
Dec 31, 2024
MTL @ VGK
3 - 2
Nov 23, 2024
VGK @ MTL
6 - 2
Nov 16, 2023
VGK @ MTL
6 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+35.4% more
Vegas: 32.9
vs
Montreal: 24.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.1%
Vegas: 53.1%
vs
Montreal: 50.0%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.6% more
Montreal: 16.7
vs
Vegas: 13.3
Takeaways (L5)
+16.6% more
Montreal: 5.0
vs
Vegas: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
2.0
4
VGK Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 16.7
7.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
53.1 / 50.0
59.3 / 40.7
Hits
22.4 / 21.8
15.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
2498.0 / 2842.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.9 / 24.3
31.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 5.0
2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
MTL
VGK
MTL
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
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