Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seawolves @ Lions STBK @ LMU

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

6-2  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 10:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

7-2  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
SEAWOLVES --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Loyola Marymount)
SeawolvesSTBK (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seawolves Cover

0.0%

Lions Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LMU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LMU)

STBK By 1-7 points

0.0%

STBK By 8-14 points

0.0%

LMU By 1-7 points

0.0%

LMU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
56
STONY BROOK
97
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
68
STONY BROOK
72
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 STBK @ LMU 71 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +67.6% more
Loyola Marymount: 5.1 vs Stony Brook: 3.1
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Loyola Marymount: 39.0 vs Stony Brook: 33.4
Turnovers (L5) +11.2% more
Loyola Marymount: 13.2 vs Stony Brook: 11.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Loyola Marymount: 44.3% vs Stony Brook: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 56.0 71
LMU Score 97.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 34.2 28.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.1 / 12.0 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 41.2 38.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 71.5 80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 33.4 37.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.6 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 11.9 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
STBK
LMU
STBK
ML
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
50% 16-16
71% 22-9
ATS
47% 15-17
61% 19-12
50% 16-16
71% 22-9
TTL
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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