Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Bulldogs WRST @ BUT

WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

4-4  |  Road

69
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

6-1  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
RAIDERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Butler)
RaidersWRST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

13.6%

Bulldogs Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

WRST By 1-7 points

9.3%

WRST By 8-14 points

2.7%

BUT By 1-7 points

21.6%

BUT By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
85
WRIGHT STATE
96
BUTLER
Simulated Score
68
WRIGHT STATE
75
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 WRST @ BUT 69 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +21.7% more
Butler: 42.7 vs Wright State: 35.1
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Butler: 13.0 vs Wright State: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5) +2.3%
Butler: 65.8% vs Wright State: 63.5%
Blocks (L5) +30.5% more
Wright State: 4.5 vs Butler: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WRST Score 85.0 69
BUT Score 96.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 43.2 33.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.7 / 16.2 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.5 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 53.3 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 65.8 / 63.5 58.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 35.1 41.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.9 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 11.9 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WRST Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
WRST
BUT
WRST
ML
62% 20-12
37% 13-22
65% 20-11
63% 22-13
ATS
56% 18-14
46% 16-19
65% 20-11
63% 22-13
TTL
50% 16-16
63% 22-13
100% 31-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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