NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
5-2 | Road
80
ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
4-3 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
RED WOLVES
100%
BISON
--
RED WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)
NDSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NDSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
ARST By 1-7 points
16.9%
ARST By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
North Dakota State
86
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Arkansas State
80
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
North Dakota State
68
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Arkansas State
72
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bison
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bison (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Red Wolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
NDSU @ ARST
80 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.6% more
North Dakota State: 3.1
vs
Arkansas State: 2.0
Assists (L5)
+19.7% more
North Dakota State: 17.3
vs
Arkansas State: 13.9
Steals (L5)
+14.7% more
North Dakota State: 9.3
vs
Arkansas State: 7.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
North Dakota State: 38.3%
vs
Arkansas State: 29.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score
86.0
80
ARST Score
80.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.3 / 38.3
33.0 / 40.0
Assists
13.9 / 17.3
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.0 / 3.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 46.5
40.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 73.6
91.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 34.0
46.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.9 / 9.3
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 11.1
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
ARST
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
NDSU
ARST
NDSU
ML
48%
15-16
49%
17-18
53%
16-14
59%
20-14
ATS
58%
18-13
54%
19-16
53%
16-14
59%
20-14
TTL
61%
19-12
43%
15-20
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
