Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Matadors @ Bengals CSUN @ IDST

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

3-4  |  Road

50
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 6:30 PM ET
Idaho Central Arena
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

4-4  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
MATADORS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
196.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
MatadorsCSUN (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Matadors Cover

94.5%

Bengals Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)

CSUN By 1-7 points

13.7%

CSUN By 8-14 points

24.3%

IDST By 1-7 points

4.0%

IDST By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
106
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
90
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
68
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
72
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Matadors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Matadors (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 196.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 CSUN @ IDST 50 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Cal State Northridge: 40.5 vs Idaho State: 32.3
Steals (L5) +14.7% more
Cal State Northridge: 6.2 vs Idaho State: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 14.5 vs Idaho State: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +169.9% more
Idaho State: 4.4 vs Cal State Northridge: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score 106.0 50
IDST Score 90.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.3 / 27.1 38.0 / 21.0
Assists 12.5 / 12.5 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.4 / 1.6 8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 44.0 48.0 / 20.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 68.5 79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 40.5 44.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 14.5 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
IDST Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
CSUN
IDST
CSUN
ML
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
ATS
50% 16-16
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
TTL
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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