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SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

7-0  |  Road

87
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

3-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
MUSTANGS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Mississippi State)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

34.5%

Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

SMU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SMU By 8-14 points

9.3%

MSST By 1-7 points

27.4%

MSST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
80
SMU
84
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
70
SMU
72
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 SMU @ MSST 87 - 81
Nov 22, 2024 MSST @ SMU 84 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.5% more
SMU: 12.0 vs Mississippi State: 7.4
Assists (L5) +32.9% more
SMU: 21.0 vs Mississippi State: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
SMU: 73.8% vs Mississippi State: 62.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
SMU: 50.5% vs Mississippi State: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 80.0 87
MSST Score 84.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 37.4 29.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.1 / 21.0 11.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.9 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 50.5 39.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 62.3 / 73.8 76.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 41.3 40.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.4 / 12.0 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 12.6 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU Advantage
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
SMU
MSST
SMU
ML
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
55% 17-14
73% 24-9
ATS
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
73% 24-9
TTL
59% 19-13
56% 19-15
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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