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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

2-15  |  Road

86
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

2-16  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
WIZARDS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Washington)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

93.3%

Pacers Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-7 points

15.3%

WSH By 8-14 points

25.3%

IND By 1-7 points

4.8%

IND By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
WASHINGTON
110
INDIANA
Simulated Score
109
WASHINGTON
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 IND @ WSH 118 - 131
Feb 19, 2026 IND @ WSH 105 - 112
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ IND 108 - 89
Nov 28, 2025 WSH @ IND 86 - 119
Apr 8, 2025 WSH @ IND 98 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Washington: 28.2 vs Indiana: 22.6
Steals (L5) +16.5% more
Washington: 9.6 vs Indiana: 8.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Washington: 42.3% vs Indiana: 34.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Washington: 49.8% vs Indiana: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 125.0 86
IND Score 110.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 42.3 38.0 / 22.0
Assists 22.6 / 28.2 27.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.7 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 49.8 52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 74.5 77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 40.2 50.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.0 / 9.6 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 14.9 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
IND Advantage
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
WSH
IND
WSH
ML
48% 47-50
70% 112-49
54% 45-38
47% 39-44
ATS
59% 57-40
69% 111-49-1
54% 45-38
47% 39-44
TTL
54% 52-45
74% 119-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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