ORLANDO
MAGICORL
11-8 | Road
112
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
15-3 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS
100%
MAGIC
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
0.6%
ORL By 8-14 points
3.3%
DET By 1-7 points
0.1%
DET By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
130
ORLANDO
Detroit
98
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Orlando
105
ORLANDO
Detroit
112
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.2% more
Orlando: 32.1
vs
Detroit: 25.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.7%
Orlando: 83.0%
vs
Detroit: 76.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Orlando: 39.1%
vs
Detroit: 36.1%
Blocks (L5)
+46.3% more
Detroit: 5.8
vs
Orlando: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
130.0
112
DET Score
98.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 39.1
39.0 / 17.0
Assists
25.0 / 32.1
22.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.8 / 3.9
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 50.3
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 83.0
77.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 44.2
49.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.9
7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 11.6
24.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ORL
DET
ORL
ML
55%
64-53
61%
65-42
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
64%
68-38-1
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
57%
61-46
100%
96-0
100%
91-0
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