PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
12-7 | Road
119
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
18-1 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
OKC By 1-7 points
0.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u223.0
Loss
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.7% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4
vs
Phoenix: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+20.5% more
Oklahoma City: 26.5
vs
Phoenix: 22.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.5%
Oklahoma City: 79.3%
vs
Phoenix: 72.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Oklahoma City: 51.2%
vs
Phoenix: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
75.0
119
OKC Score
125.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 35.9
47.0 / 34.0
Assists
26.5 / 22.0
27.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.4 / 4.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 45.5
48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 72.8
86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 43.9
37.0 / 51.0
Steals
10.0 / 11.9
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 17.1
10.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70%
80-34
57%
60-45
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
59-43-3
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
61-42-2
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
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