Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Lakers DAL @ LAL

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

5-14  |  Road

119
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 10:00 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

13-4  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
MAVERICKS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

54.0%

Lakers Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111
DALLAS
110
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 LAL @ DAL 128 - 134
Feb 12, 2026 DAL @ LAL 104 - 124
Jan 24, 2026 LAL @ DAL 116 - 110
Nov 28, 2025 DAL @ LAL 119 - 129
Oct 15, 2025 DAL @ LAL 121 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.3% more
Dallas: 6.8 vs Los Angeles: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Dallas: 46.7 vs Los Angeles: 41.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Dallas: 16.0 vs Los Angeles: 14.2
Steals (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.2 vs Dallas: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 111.0 119
LAL Score 110.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 32.9 51.0 / 44.0
Assists 26.3 / 22.6 27.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.8 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.1 / 41.5 59.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 81.9 81.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 46.7 34.0 / 39.0
Steals 9.2 / 7.1 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 16.0 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
DAL
LAL
DAL
ML
61% 68-43
62% 63-39
54% 49-42
54% 44-37
ATS
61% 67-43-1
67% 68-34
54% 49-42
54% 44-37
TTL
61% 66-43-2
59% 60-41-1
100% 91-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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