Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoyas @ Flyers GTWN @ DAY

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

5-0  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Field House
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

5-1  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
HOYAS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
HOYAS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dayton)
HoyasGTWN (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoyas Cover

46.0%

Flyers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

GTWN By 1-7 points

24.3%

GTWN By 8-14 points

13.7%

DAY By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAY By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
72
GEORGETOWN
73
DAYTON
Simulated Score
65
GEORGETOWN
72
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 GTWN @ DAY 79 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.3% more
Dayton: 12.8 vs Georgetown: 8.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Dayton: 46.9% vs Georgetown: 44.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Dayton: 34.5% vs Georgetown: 32.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Georgetown: 80.0% vs Dayton: 68.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GTWN Score 72.0 79
DAY Score 73.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 32.7 42.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.6 / 16.1 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.5 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 44.6 41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 80.0 78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 37.2 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.4 / 9.0 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 8.2 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GTWN
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
GTWN
DAY
GTWN
ML
65% 24-13
67% 22-11
64% 23-13
73% 22-8
ATS
68% 25-12
58% 19-14
64% 23-13
73% 22-8
TTL
57% 21-16
58% 19-14
100% 36-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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