TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
4-2 | Road
84
FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
4-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
0%
GATORS
100%
HORNED FROGS
--
GATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TCU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
TCU By 1-7 points
27.2%
TCU By 8-14 points
20.1%
FLA By 1-7 points
21.6%
FLA By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
TCU
69
TCU
Florida
66
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
TCU
71
TCU
Florida
75
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Horned Frogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Horned Frogs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Gators (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 27, 2025
TCU @ FLA
84 - 80
Jan 26, 2019
FLA @ TCU
50 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+44.6% more
TCU: 10.1
vs
Florida: 5.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
TCU: 35.3%
vs
Florida: 30.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
TCU: 75.2%
vs
Florida: 71.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+33.2% more
Florida: 51.6
vs
TCU: 38.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TCU Score
69.0
84
FLA Score
66.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 35.3
28.0 / 24.0
Assists
15.0 / 15.9
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.4 / 5.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 41.8
45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 75.2
81.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
51.6 / 38.7
31.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.6 / 10.1
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 12.4
19.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
FLA
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TCU
FLA
TCU
ML
77%
27-8
74%
26-9
63%
22-13
63%
19-11
ATS
69%
24-11
74%
26-9
63%
22-13
63%
19-11
TTL
63%
22-13
66%
23-12
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
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