Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Colts HOU @ IND

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

6-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

8-3  |  Home

16
Key Game
George Odum
KEY GAME

George Odum

#36 | Safety
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
George Odum None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
COLTS
0%
TEXANS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indianapolis)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

47.2%

Colts Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.1%

HOU By 7-13 points

14.6%

IND By 1-6 points

16.7%

IND By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
HOUSTON
28
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Colts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u44.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ IND 17 - 19
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ HOU 30 - 38
Nov 30, 2025 HOU @ IND 20 - 16
Oct 27, 2024 IND @ HOU 20 - 23
Sep 8, 2024 HOU @ IND 29 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +98.0% more
Indianapolis: 1.5 vs Houston: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.4% more
Indianapolis: 145.9 vs Houston: 103.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.2% more
Indianapolis: 6.1 vs Houston: 4.9
Total Yards (L5) +16.6% more
Indianapolis: 370.0 vs Houston: 317.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 27.0 20
IND Score 28.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 19.0 17.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 224.1 / 213.4 195.0 / 256.0
Rushing Yards 145.9 / 103.9 86.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 370.0 / 317.3 281.0 / 364.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 4.9 5.5 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
HOU
IND
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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