Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Dolphins NO @ MIA

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-9  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

4-7  |  Home

21
Key Game
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
@
Willie Gay Jr.
KEY GAME

Willie Gay Jr.

#40 | Linebacker
Player
Charlie Smyth None-None
Willie Gay Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
SAINTS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

41.5%

Dolphins Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

NO By 1-6 points

17.0%

NO By 7-13 points

17.5%

MIA By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
17
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
NEW ORLEANS
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ MIA 17 - 21
Dec 27, 2021 MIA @ NO 20 - 3
Oct 1, 2017 NO @ MIA 20 - 0
Sep 30, 2013 MIA @ NO 17 - 38
Oct 25, 2009 NO @ MIA 46 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.9% more
New Orleans: 1.9 vs Miami: 1.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
New Orleans: 218.2 vs Miami: 176.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +77.0% more
Miami: 146.3 vs New Orleans: 82.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.2% more
Miami: 5.8 vs New Orleans: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 17
MIA Score 17.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 17.5 16.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 176.3 / 218.2 134.0 / 213.0
Rushing Yards 146.3 / 82.6 164.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 322.6 / 300.8 298.0 / 294.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.8 5.1 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NO
MIA
NO
ML
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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