Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Buccaneers ARI @ TB

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-8  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

6-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Chad Ryland None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
CARDINALS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

47.2%

Buccaneers Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

ARI By 1-6 points

16.1%

ARI By 7-13 points

14.6%

TB By 1-6 points

16.7%

TB By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
ARIZONA
28
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
ARIZONA
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 ARI @ TB 17 - 20
Dec 25, 2022 TB @ ARI 19 - 16
Nov 10, 2019 ARI @ TB 27 - 30
Oct 15, 2017 TB @ ARI 33 - 38
Sep 18, 2016 TB @ ARI 7 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +62.5% more
Tampa Bay: 127.7 vs Arizona: 78.5
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4 vs Arizona: 1.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.7% more
Arizona: 288.5 vs Tampa Bay: 159.6
First Downs (L5) +22.4% more
Arizona: 23.2 vs Tampa Bay: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 27.0 17
TB Score 28.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 23.2 13.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 159.6 / 288.5 184.0 / 291.0
Rushing Yards 127.7 / 78.5 95.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 287.2 / 367.1 279.0 / 386.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.2 4.9 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ARI
TB
ARI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
sportingnews 1 hour, 25 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 15 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 13 hours, 37 minutes ago