Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Jets ATL @ NYJ

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

4-7  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-9  |  Home

27
Key Game
Nick Folk
KEY GAME

Nick Folk

#6 | Place kicker
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Nick Folk None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
JETS
0%
FALCONS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

41.5%

Jets Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYJ -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYJ)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.9%

NYJ By 1-6 points

17.0%

NYJ By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ATLANTA
20
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Jets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u38.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 ATL @ NYJ 24 - 27
Dec 3, 2023 ATL @ NYJ 13 - 8
Oct 10, 2021 NYJ @ ATL 20 - 27
Oct 29, 2017 ATL @ NYJ 25 - 20
Oct 7, 2013 NYJ @ ATL 30 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.0% more
New York: 1.3 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.2% more
Atlanta: 195.5 vs New York: 148.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.3% more
Atlanta: 5.4 vs New York: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 17.0 24
NYJ Score 20.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 17.9 16.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 148.2 / 195.5 159.0 / 222.0
Rushing Yards 122.9 / 116.1 110.0 / 167.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.44 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 271.1 / 311.6 269.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.4 4.3 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
ATL
NYJ
ATL
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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