Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Steelers BUF @ PIT

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

7-4  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 4:25 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

6-5  |  Home

7
Key Game
Deone Walker
KEY GAME

Deone Walker

#96 | Defensive Tackle
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Deone Walker None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
STEELERS
100%
BILLS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

58.5%

Steelers Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

17.5%

PIT By 1-6 points

15.3%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27
BUFFALO
24
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o45.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u45.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 PIT @ BUF 27 - 28
Nov 30, 2025 BUF @ PIT 26 - 7
Jan 15, 2024 PIT @ BUF 17 - 31
Oct 9, 2022 PIT @ BUF 3 - 38
Sep 12, 2021 PIT @ BUF 23 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.4% more
Buffalo: 2.3 vs Pittsburgh: 1.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.5% more
Buffalo: 237.7 vs Pittsburgh: 186.6
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Buffalo: 368.8 vs Pittsburgh: 308.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.2% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Pittsburgh: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 27.0 26
PIT Score 24.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 18.4 10.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 186.6 / 237.7 108.0 / 123.0
Rushing Yards 122.1 / 131.1 58.0 / 249.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.7
Total Yards 308.7 / 368.8 166.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.3 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 6.1 3.9 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BUF
PIT
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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