Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Commanders DEN @ WSH

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

9-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 8:20 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-8  |  Home

26
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
BRONCOS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

97.3%

Commanders Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

4.2%

DEN By 7-13 points

9.6%

WSH By 1-6 points

1.6%

WSH By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
DENVER
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 DEN @ WSH 27 - 26
Sep 17, 2023 WSH @ DEN 35 - 33
Oct 31, 2021 WSH @ DEN 10 - 17
Dec 24, 2017 DEN @ WSH 11 - 27
Oct 27, 2013 WSH @ DEN 21 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Denver: 219.3 vs Washington: 192.0
Turnovers (L5) +57.0% more
Washington: 1.5 vs Denver: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.1% more
Washington: 135.1 vs Denver: 95.7
First Downs (L5) +13.6% more
Washington: 18.5 vs Denver: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 30.0 27
WSH Score 3.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 16.3 30.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 192.0 / 219.3 276.0 / 315.0
Rushing Yards 135.1 / 95.7 143.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 327.1 / 315.0 419.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.2 4.9 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DEN
WSH
DEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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