GREEN BAY
PACKERSGB
7-3-1 | Road
31
DETROIT
LIONSDET
7-4 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Daniel Whelan
#19 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Jack Fox
#3 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Daniel Whelan | None-None |
| Jack Fox | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
100%
LIONS
0%
PACKERS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
GB By 1-6 points
12.9%
GB By 7-13 points
9.6%
DET By 1-6 points
16.5%
DET By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Green Bay
20
GREEN BAY
Detroit
27
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Green Bay
24
GREEN BAY
Detroit
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u48.0
Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim
u48.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 27, 2025
GB @ DET
31 - 24
Sep 7, 2025
DET @ GB
13 - 27
Dec 5, 2024
GB @ DET
31 - 34
Nov 3, 2024
DET @ GB
24 - 14
Nov 23, 2023
GB @ DET
29 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+36.2% more
Detroit: 254.3
vs
Green Bay: 186.6
Total Yards (L5)
+33.8% more
Detroit: 416.9
vs
Green Bay: 311.7
Rushing Yards (L5)
+30.1% more
Detroit: 162.7
vs
Green Bay: 125.0
Turnovers (L5)
+29.0% more
Detroit: 0.9
vs
Green Bay: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GB Score
20.0
31
DET Score
27.0
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.3 / 20.5
20.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards
254.3 / 186.6
233.0 / 234.0
Rushing Yards
162.7 / 125.0
119.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.62 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards
416.9 / 311.7
352.0 / 359.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
6.5 / 5.1
5.9 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -10.0
DET
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
Advantage
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -10.0
DET
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
GB
DET
GB
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
33%
1-2-1
0%
0-3-1
67%
2-1-1
33%
1-2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
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